Canadian Modelling System
QEDinc uses its Canadian Modelling System (CMS) to produce long-term projections of the national, provincial and territorial economies. The CMS is a large, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Canada’s provinces and territories where activity in one region influences activity across the rest of the country. The CMS is also used as a platform for QEDinc’s economic consultancy services.
Current Forecast
QEDinc’s Winter 2022 forecast is summarized in this commentary and a set of charts and tables (subject to Terms of Use).
Historical data was current as of December 5, 2022 and is drawn from the following sources: Statistics Canada, the Bank of Canada, the World Bank, the United Nations, the US Federal Reserve Bank and the US Energy Information Administration.
The spreadsheet file includes three tables: Rest of World Assumptions, Provincial/Territorial Forecast Summary, and the National Forecast Summary.
The Rest of World Assumptions table summarizes real GDP growth, GDP deflator growth, population growth and exchange rates for the United States, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, South Korea, Japan, the Eurozone countries and the United Kingdom along with assumptions on global commodity prices and US interest rates.
The Provincial and Territorial Forecast Summary table provides forecasts of real GDP growth, employment growth, the unemployment rate, population growth and CPI inflation rates for each province and territory.
The National Forecast Summary table provides forecasts of real expenditure growth by category; key demographic and labour market concepts; wage, price and productivity measures; financial markets; external and government balances; employment growth by sector (SNA basis); and real value added growth by sector at the national level.
The full set of CMS forecast tables is available from QEDinc upon request (subject to Terms of Use). Please send an email with your request to rsomerville@qedinc.ca.
CMS Model Documentation
Documentation for the CMS model is also available from QEDinc upon request (subject to Terms of Use). Please send an email with your request to rsomerville@qedinc.ca.